Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08c0…24c5 crypto 20 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-35%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$10
other 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-55.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -50.9% -55.6% 35% 30% -42.2%
≤30d 20 -50.9% -55.6% 35% 30% -42.2%
≤90d 20 -50.9% -55.6% 35% 30% -42.2%
all 20 -50.9% -55.6% 35% 30% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.6% 30% -42.2%
10% ← realistic here -59.8% 25% -47.7%
15% -63.7% 15% -52.8%
20% -67.3% 5% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records