Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08c0…b3ca other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-7%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$6
sports 30% −$35
world 16% −$11
crypto 6% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.3% -15.2% 19% 19% -19.4%
≤30d 21 -6.3% -15.2% 19% 19% -19.4%
≤90d 21 -6.3% -15.2% 19% 19% -19.4%
all 21 -6.3% -15.2% 19% 19% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 19% -19.4%
10% -23.3% 19% -27.1%
15% -30.7% 19% -34.2%
20% -37.5% 14% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$16 +73%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$5 -13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$4 -34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$15 -52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$5 -18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $63 −$12 -20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$18 -47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$7 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $32 −$13 -41%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34 −$4 -13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 +$20 +127%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $34 −$26 -77%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $33 +$19 +57%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $23 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 88¢ $39 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $22 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $8 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 43¢ $29 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 36¢ $10 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 11h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 11h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 11h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $22 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 53¢ $24 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $21 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 42¢ $13 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 47¢ $15 36h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 37h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $22 39h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 39h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 41¢ $1 39h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 35¢ $14 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.61 · official $88.61 (match) · 53 history records