Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08cc…17e6 sports 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$110 (+7%) realized +$114 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%76W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$240
14 days+$254
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$105
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +16.2% +5.1% 67% 61% +18.8%
≤30d 145 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 45% -3.4%
≤90d 145 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 45% -3.4%
all 145 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 45% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 45% -3.4%
10% -20.2% 35% -12.6%
15% -27.9% 30% -21.1%
20% -35.0% 26% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses76 / 69
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)145 / 152
History coverage25d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Bebop 67¢ 50¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5) Noir Verse 35¢ 65¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+86%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 50¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 53¢ 53¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner illwill 47¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) illwill 76¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Netherlands 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $10 +$8 +84%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$12 +81%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$21 +143%
Map Handicap: NTR (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $25 +$28 +112%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$7 +37%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$29 +113%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$23 +113%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +104%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$10 +49%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$17 +111%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $13 +$15 +113%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$14 +72%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$5 +100%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $15 +$24 +163%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$19 +186%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $20 +$13 +67%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 +$11 +98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $5 +$9 +170%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $8 +$10 +135%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $1 +$2 +178%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 53¢ $5 29m
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5) BUY Noir Verse 35¢ $5 43m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 47¢ $5 44m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 50¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 50¢ $5 2h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) BUY illwill 76¢ $5 3h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY Bebop 65¢ $5 3h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY Bebop 68¢ $5 3h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY Bebop 68¢ $5 3h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 84¢ $5 6h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 85¢ $1 6h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 85¢ $4 6h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) BUY TDK 71¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 48¢ $5 6h
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) BUY DXA Esports 39¢ $5 9h
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) BUY DXA Esports 42¢ $2 10h
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) BUY DXA Esports 42¢ $1 10h
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) BUY DXA Esports 42¢ $3 10h
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) BUY DXA Esports 42¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $3 15h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 75¢ $5 15h
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 30¢ $1 16h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 75¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 50¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 50¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 50¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.84 · official $43.49 (match) · 548 history records