Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08cf…22b9 sports 472 markets active 0h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$915 (+1%) realized +$1,058 · open −$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%305W / 161L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$1,252est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days−$1,586
14 days−$1,091
30 days+$2,498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$1,190
world 8% −$135
other 2% +$522
crypto 1% +$436
tech 0% +$21
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -17.3% -25.2% 58% 51% -21.9%
≤30d 165 -0.8% -10.3% 65% 55% -5.1%
≤90d 441 -0.5% -10.0% 66% 52% -6.9%
all 466 +0.3% -9.2% 65% 50% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 50% -7.0%
10% -17.9% 36% -15.9%
15% -25.9% 25% -24.0%
20% -33.1% 15% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$117 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$1,058
Unrealized−$143
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses305 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$1,252
Open positions6
Markets (closed)466 / 472
History coverage192d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $71 $84 +$13 (+19%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $77 $74 −$4 (-5%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $147 $66 −$80 (-55%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner InterActive Philippines 65¢ 30¢ $65 $30 −$34 (-53%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $221 +$153 +69%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $290 +$72 +25%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $880 +$185 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $293 −$293 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $132 −$132 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $112 +$71 +63%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$35 +54%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $414 −$414 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $1,035 +$463 +45%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,042 +$400 +38%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $363 −$11 -3%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $97 +$32 +33%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $520 −$512 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 19 $121 +$20 +16%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $192 +$8 +4%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $208 +$40 +19%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $49 +$51 +104%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $371 +$96 +26%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $37 −$35 -95%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $379 +$133 +35%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $417 +$250 +60%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $1,800 −$1,338 -74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $137 +$112 +82%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $386 +$47 +12%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $195 −$165 -85%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $88 +$12 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 +$35 +54%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $483 −$483 -100%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 15 $13 −$4 -28%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $53 +$22 +42%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $85 +$15 +18%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $78 +$22 +28%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 15 $157 −$18 -11%
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? Jun 13 $63 +$29 +45%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $31 +$19 +61%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $6 +$4 +54%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $128 −$68 -53%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,166 +$146 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 65¢ $36 7m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 65¢ $3 10m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 65¢ $13 10m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 65¢ $13 10m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $375 50m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As SELL Grind Back 100¢ $267 53m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As SELL Grind Back 100¢ $95 53m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 55¢ $55 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 80¢ $200 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 55¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 80¢ $90 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 61¢ $89 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 61¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 61¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 61¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $999 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 79¢ $14 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 79¢ $67 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 79¢ $11 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 79¢ $16 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 79¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 79¢ $77 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 79¢ $198 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 79¢ $198 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 79¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 79¢ $190 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner SELL Carstensz 33¢ $66 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 44¢ $44 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 46¢ $46 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 36¢ $108 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.95 · official $328.45 · 2838 history records