Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
08 0x08d1…b7e0 weather 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+2%) realized +$47 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate88%105W / 15L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$23
14 days+$14
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$33
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.4% -8.3% 88% 12% -6.5%
≤30d 72 +1.9% -7.8% 88% 15% -7.7%
≤90d 120 +3.3% -6.6% 88% 20% -7.5%
all 120 +3.3% -6.6% 88% 20% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 20% -7.5%
10% -15.5% 5% -16.4%
15% -23.7% 1% -24.5%
20% -31.1% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses105 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage71d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? No 97¢ 91¢ $58 $54 −$4 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $33 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $63 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 20 $4 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $56 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $54 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$8 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $55 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $35 −$22 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $29 −$7 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $58 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $37 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $38 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $35 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $36 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $8 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $20 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 96¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 72¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.25 · official $54.25 (match) · 305 history records