Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08d5…1cbb other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$540 (+6%) realized +$197 · open +$343
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate55%30W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$241
7 days+$173
14 days+$626
30 days+$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$84
other 36% −$14
sports 13% +$243
politics 3% +$13
tech 3% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.6% -8.1% 29% 29% +1.8%
≤30d 25 +19.2% +7.8% 32% 32% +28.7%
≤90d 28 +14.5% +3.6% 36% 32% +16.5%
all 55 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 24% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 24% -9.5%
10% -20.5% 15% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 15% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 15% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$76 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$1,323
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$343
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses30 / 25
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions8
Markets (closed)55 / 63
History coverage160d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $410 $610 +$200 (+49%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $343 +$143 (+72%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 45¢ 46¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 11¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$168 +165%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $102 +$243 +238%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$187 +365%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $51 +$199 +388%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$141 +276%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$453 +442%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 11 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
US strike on Cuba by January 31? Apr 25 $283 +$10 +4%
Will the RSF capture El Obeid by January 31? Feb 02 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Feb 02 $205 +$10 +5%
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? Feb 02 $215 +$21 +10%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $278 +$54 +19%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $260 +$39 +15%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? Jan 31 $67 +$2 +3%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jan 31 $290 +$8 +3%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Jan 31 $290 +$45 +16%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 27 $282 +$18 +6%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Jan 25 $301 −$301 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 25 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jan 24 $294 +$9 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 24 $260 +$15 +6%
Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech? Jan 22 $286 +$13 +5%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)? Jan 18 $294 +$6 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? Jan 18 $274 +$9 +3%
Khamenei public appearance by Friday? Jan 17 $72 +$2 +2%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $260 +$17 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $51 46m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $102 46m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $21 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $329 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $102 21h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden $10 22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 37¢ $102 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 25h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $102 25h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $103 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $56 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $51 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $412 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia $21 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Over $5 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $51 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $51 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $51 5d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $51 5d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 28¢ $51 5d
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 11¢ $103 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,322.94 · official $1,318.90 (match) · 127 history records