Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08d8…fe20 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-10%) realized −$17 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$13
other 9% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -41.6% -47.1% 33% 33% -29.5%
≤30d 6 -41.6% -47.1% 33% 33% -29.5%
≤90d 6 -41.6% -47.1% 33% 33% -29.5%
all 6 -41.6% -47.1% 33% 33% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 33% -29.5%
10% -52.2% 17% -36.3%
15% -56.8% 17% -42.4%
20% -61.0% 0% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 84¢ $59 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $60 +$11 +18%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$13 -83%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$1 -24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 87¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $80 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $7 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 54¢ $3 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $45 6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $15 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.98 · official $60.99 (match) · 18 history records