Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

08 0x08d9…ea32 crypto 7 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$8 (-4%) realized −$22 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip

Net edge-58%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day7.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-56.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	6	-51.8%	-56.4%	17%	0%	-36.2%
≤90d	6	-51.8%	-56.4%	17%	0%	-36.2%
all	6	-51.8%	-56.4%	17%	0%	-36.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.4%	0%	-36.2%
10%	-60.6%	0%	-42.3%
15%	-64.4%	0%	-47.9%
20%	-67.9%	0%	-53.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -30% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$114

Realized−$22

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage2d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day7.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$100	$114	+$14 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5	Jun 10	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 10	$5	−$1	-17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 09	$5	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 09	$51	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5	BUY Under	48¢	$10	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	SELL Up	29¢	$3	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	SELL Up	37¢	$1	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	SELL Up	65¢	$25	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$26	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$26	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	SELL Up	87¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$5	7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.89 · official $113.89 (match) · 22 history records