Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
08 0x08dd…ced4 crypto 453 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,087 (+3%) realized +$2,072 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%220W / 232L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$790
other 0% +$47
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.1% -25.0% 54% 54% -24.0%
≤30d 21 -32.3% -38.7% 43% 43% -32.2%
≤90d 310 +3.6% -6.3% 50% 46% -10.0%
all 452 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 45% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 45% -10.4%
10% -21.1% 38% -19.0%
15% -28.7% 30% -26.8%
20% -35.7% 23% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$104 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$2,072
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses220 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)452 / 453
History coverage146d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 76¢ 96¢ $60 $75 +$15 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $90 +$33 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$35 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$74 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $141 −$135 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $48 +$15 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $115 −$31 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 04 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $199 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 04 $61 −$57 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $191 +$68 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 04 $198 −$188 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $62 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $104 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 19 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 19 $107 −$37 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 19 $77 +$31 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 19 $66 +$18 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 19 $23 +$42 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 19 $328 −$305 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 19 $205 +$110 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 19 $201 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 19 $172 +$30 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 19 $315 −$41 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 19 $198 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 19 $184 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 19 $142 +$40 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 19 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 19 $511 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 19 $501 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 19 $504 −$504 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 19 $611 −$590 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 19 $408 +$104 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 19 $514 +$313 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 19 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 19 $655 +$254 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 18 $546 +$105 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 18 $146 −$138 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 18 $568 +$125 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 18 $903 −$870 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 18 $518 +$398 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 18 $841 +$287 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 18 $547 −$530 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $61 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $124 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $123 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $90 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $18 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $42 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $125 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $53 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $159 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.39 · official $75.39 (match) · 1631 history records