trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 46¢ | $241 | $303 | +$62 (+26%) |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $19 | $0 | −$19 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $142 | +$59 | +42% |
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? | Dec 18 | $128 | +$105 | +82% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? | Dec 17 | $22,581 | +$8,194 | +36% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? | Dec 17 | $6,683 | +$1,062 | +16% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? | Dec 17 | $44,823 | +$5,363 | +12% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? | Dec 17 | $22,188 | +$3,012 | +14% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? | Dec 16 | $680 | +$320 | +47% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? | Dec 16 | $32,843 | +$10,319 | +31% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Dec 02 | $60 | +$40 | +67% |
| Will Trump say "America" or "American" 8+ at the Turkey Pardon on Tue | Nov 25 | $6 | +$4 | +56% |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Nov 23 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens | Nov 23 | $22 | −$21 | -97% |
| Clippers vs. Hornets | Nov 22 | $20 | +$4 | +19% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +41.6% | +28.1% | 100% | 100% | +28.1% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +41.6% | +28.1% | 100% | 100% | +28.1% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +41.6% | +28.1% | 100% | 100% | +28.1% |
| all | 13 | +17.3% | +6.1% | 85% | 85% | +10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +6.1% | 85% | +10.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -4.0% | 54% | -0.3% |
| 15% | -13.3% | 46% | -9.9% |
| 20% | -21.8% | 23% | -18.8% |