Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08e0…c646 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$169 (-6%) realized −$288 · open +$119
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%32W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$59
14 days−$6
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$439
other 27% +$51
finance 14% +$252
crypto 9% −$13
world 4% +$11
politics 2% −$6
weather 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.0% +11.3% 85% 77% +6.5%
≤30d 23 +2.0% -7.8% 65% 61% -11.1%
≤90d 58 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 52% -17.0%
all 61 -6.0% -14.9% 52% 49% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 49% -19.0%
10% -23.1% 41% -26.7%
15% -30.5% 36% -33.8%
20% -37.3% 30% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$34 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$119
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses32 / 29
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage98d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 27¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 38¢ 99¢ $40 $105 +$65 (+161%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $15 +$12 +76%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $12 +$11 +90%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$11 +54%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$6 +21%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$12 +57%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$6 +38%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $121 +$21 +17%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $40 −$35 -86%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$18 +119%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $256 −$67 -26%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 03 $40 +$31 +79%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $350 −$350 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 17 $3 +$8 +250%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $40 −$40 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 03 $22 +$46 +205%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 03 $100 +$59 +59%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Apr 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 27 $3 +$3 +122%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 27 $32 +$18 +56%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 27 $30 +$30 +100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 27 $195 +$96 +49%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $85 −$66 -78%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $75 +$104 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 10 $75 +$24 +33%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April? Apr 08 $100 +$67 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 08 $20 +$37 +183%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April? Apr 07 $104 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 07 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 07 $22 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes 77¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 13h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $77 14h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 14¢ $21 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 85¢ $40 5d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 6d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 6d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 8d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No $5 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 8d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 68¢ $15 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 12¢ $7 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.67 · official $408.37 (match) · 213 history records