Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08e3…fe0b other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$12
other 25% −$8
politics 17% +$1
crypto 9% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 5 -5.7% -14.7% 20% 0% -16.5%
≤90d 5 -5.7% -14.7% 20% 0% -16.5%
all 39 -3.4% -12.6% 44% 3% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -13.0%
10% -20.9% 3% -21.3%
15% -28.6% 0% -28.9%
20% -35.6% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage461d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $43 −$12 -27%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $6 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2024-25 FA Cup? May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $16 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025? Apr 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $1 $0 -26%
More Epstein files released in March? Mar 28 $2 $0 -18%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $16 $0 +0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $13 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $12 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $23 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $5 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 41h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 27d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $2 205d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $4 205d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $5 205d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $5 205d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $2 352d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $6 352d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 93¢ $6 352d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $6 352d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $6 352d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $6 353d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw SELL No 98¢ $5 358d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $1 383d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw BUY No 94¢ $5 401d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.53 · official $28.48 (match) · 109 history records