Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08e4…dfdd crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$126 (+7%) realized +$325 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$23
sports 30% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 38% +4.3%
≤30d 24 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 38% +4.3%
≤90d 24 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 38% +4.3%
all 24 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 38% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 38% +4.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 21% -5.7%
15% -28.0% 12% -14.8%
20% -35.1% 8% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$325
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 34¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $235 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $132 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$15 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$20 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$65 +245%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $111 −$7 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $101 +$80 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $24 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $29 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $104 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $104 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $100 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $128 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $43.34 · 74 history records