Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08e5…e80e politics 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1
other 28% $0
crypto 14% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage103d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $84 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $85 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 18h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $84 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 27d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 27d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $84 31d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $84 31d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $84 40d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $84 40d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $84 43d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $84 44d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $84 48d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $84 48d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 53d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 54d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $85 71d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $82 72d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $3 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $85 76d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $85 76d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 82d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 82d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $85 89d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 90d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 90d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 90d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $85 100d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $86 100d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records