Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08e7…ff57 world 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%39W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
other 20% −$4
politics 16% $0
sports 9% −$1
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 30% 10% -10.5%
≤30d 37 +0.1% -9.5% 41% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -1.7% -11.1% 34% 2% -9.6%
all 122 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses39 / 83
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage319d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $35 −$10 -27%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $108 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $97 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $106 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $106 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $95 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $104 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $87 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $155 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $186 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $206 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $99 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $109 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $214 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $168 −$2 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $212 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $145 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $102 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 01 $98 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $95 +$4 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $152 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $97 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $103 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $97 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $17 +$8 +50%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $71 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $30 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $262 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $191 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $95 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 02 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $102 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $99 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes $18 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes $8 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $108 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $108 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $28 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $59 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $39 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $97 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $107 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $106 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $106 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $106 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 15¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $42 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $42 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $60 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.90 · official $98.90 (match) · 525 history records