Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08ec…7c24 crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-10%) realized −$45 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate60%34W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$12
crypto 26% −$16
world 12% −$4
culture 9% +$1
sports 8% $0
tech 7% −$10
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.1% -36.8% 67% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 7 -38.2% -44.0% 57% 14% -10.6%
≤90d 17 -27.4% -34.3% 65% 18% -14.1%
all 57 -21.0% -28.5% 60% 23% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 23% -22.0%
10% -35.4% 11% -29.5%
15% -41.6% 11% -36.3%
20% -47.3% 11% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses34 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)57 / 79
History coverage102d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? No 88¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 79¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 90¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+46%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 02 $15 +$1 +10%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +11%
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top global Netflix movi Mar 25 $5 $0 +9%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Mar 18 $22 −$10 -45%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 18 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 16 $3 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 16 $3 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 16 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 16 $1 +$1 +102%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 16 $4 $0 +7%
Will Hoppers be the highest grossing movie this weekend? Mar 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 13 $2 $0 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 11 $6 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 11 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 11 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 11 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 11 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 10 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 28h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 90¢ $4 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 85¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 99¢ $7 76d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 96¢ $2 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 76d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 76d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 76d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $5 76d
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? BUY No 95¢ $2 76d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $5 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 77d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $16 78d
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? BUY No 4¢ $1 79d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $9 79d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 79d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 79d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 79d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 79d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 79d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.31 · official $79.31 (match) · 251 history records