Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08ed…5f25 politics 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 76L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$10
sports 25% −$5
other 25% −$6
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% −$1
world 2% −$3
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 80 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage199d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $522 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $257 −$2 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $258 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $525 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $259 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $261 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $261 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $261 +$1 +0%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $262 −$2 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $263 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $265 −$2 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $265 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $527 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $266 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 27 $533 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $268 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $268 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 13 $268 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $529 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 07 $268 $0 +0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 05 $262 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $257 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $259 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $259 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $259 $0 -0%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $258 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $256 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $264 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $261 $0 -0%
Will Freiburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Feb 26 $256 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $261 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 07 $264 $0 -0%
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 07 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $258 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 05 $264 $0 -0%
Will there be no coalition by October 31? Feb 01 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $264 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $263 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $255 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $255 14h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $255 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $255 4d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $255 10d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $257 11d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $257 21d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $258 21d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 22d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 28d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 29d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 31d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $259 31d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $259 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $259 33d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $259 34d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $259 35d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $259 36d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $259 37d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $259 40d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $259 40d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $260 61d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $261 62d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $261 63d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $261 63d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $261 66d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $261 66d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $261 68d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $261 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 273 history records