Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08f6…6b1d crypto 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+5%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%51W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$26
14 days+$48
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -8.5% -17.2% 39% 39% -1.0%
≤30d 98 +2.6% -7.2% 52% 51% -7.1%
≤90d 98 +2.6% -7.2% 52% 51% -7.1%
all 98 +2.6% -7.2% 52% 51% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 51% -7.1%
10% -16.1% 51% -16.0%
15% -24.2% 49% -24.1%
20% -31.6% 46% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses51 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage28d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$35 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$23 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$22 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $37 +$36 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $20 +$18 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $62 −$42 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $21 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 05 $20 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 30 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records