Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
08 0x08f7…1f43 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$55 (+27%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$58
sports 45% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +50.0% +35.7% 75% 75% +34.9%
≤30d 5 +20.0% +8.6% 60% 60% +8.7%
≤90d 5 +20.0% +8.6% 60% 60% +8.7%
all 5 +20.0% +8.6% 60% 60% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 60% +8.7%
10% -1.8% 60% -1.7%
15% -11.3% 60% -11.2%
20% -20.0% 40% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$26 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage28d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $27 −$12 -43%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$35 +139%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$22 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $74 +$36 +49%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 52¢ $15 52m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 90¢ $27 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $60 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $25 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 30h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 22¢ $41 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records