Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08fb…963a weather 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-1%) realized −$9 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%35W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$41
sports 20% −$10
other 8% +$1
weather 5% $0
crypto 1% −$49
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 22 +0.0% -9.5% 91% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 39 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -10.6%
10% -20.1% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$22 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$577
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses35 / 5
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)40 / 49
History coverage105d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $250 $292 +$42 (+17%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 42¢ $250 $208 −$42 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 29? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 30? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on May 30? May 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on May 30? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 29? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $565 −$15 -3%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 26 $592 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or below on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or below on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 21? May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 15? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 14? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 15? May 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C or higher on May 9? May 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 9? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 9? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on May 9? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,292 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 24? Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 24? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 24? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on April 24? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $421 +$1 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $692 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $494 +$5 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 18 $279 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 58m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 59m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 17d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 17d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 17d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $9 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 18d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 18d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $9 18d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 18d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $224 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $179 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $162 19d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $9 26d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or below on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $577.01 · official $577.01 (match) · 248 history records