Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:36:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08fe…355f sports 798 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$358 (-5%) realized −$366 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate63%501W / 292L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$65
14 days−$54
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$202
other 43% −$216
politics 0% +$9
world 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +10.6% +0.0% 73% 72% +1.8%
≤30d 447 +0.5% -9.1% 70% 66% -13.2%
≤90d 793 -2.7% -11.9% 63% 50% -14.8%
all 793 -2.7% -11.9% 63% 50% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 50% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 36% -22.9%
15% -28.0% 22% -30.4%
20% -35.1% 13% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses501 / 292
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions5
Markets (closed)793 / 798
History coverage77d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 793 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner TDK 61¢ 100¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+64%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Ground Zero 68¢ 100¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+47%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner ex-RUBY 68¢ 84¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner MARKandLARRY 61¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+64%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Sashi Esport 45¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$5 +77%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$5 +53%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$10 +80%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$6 +68%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$7 +82%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$6 +46%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$14 +92%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$3 +22%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$8 +124%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$2 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$5 +63%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$3 +84%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$4 +50%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 68¢ $3 4m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 69¢ $3 6m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 66¢ $3 13m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 55¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 72¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 82¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 66¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 45¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 68¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 46¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MARKandLARRY 61¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 21¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 54¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 71¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 84¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 56¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 64¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 78¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 72¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 58¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 61¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 53¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 75¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.02 · official $42.89 · 2340 history records