Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08fe…50cf crypto 580 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$41 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%411W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$24
14 days−$51
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 +3.7% -6.2% 63% 43% -10.5%
≤30d 579 -1.9% -11.3% 71% 29% -11.1%
≤90d 579 -1.9% -11.3% 71% 29% -11.1%
all 579 -1.9% -11.3% 71% 29% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 29% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 22% -19.6%
15% -27.5% 16% -27.3%
20% -34.6% 12% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses411 / 168
Open positions1
Markets (closed)579 / 580
History coverage24d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 0¢ 92¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $0.85 (match) · 1605 history records