Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08ff…c153 crypto 751 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$117 (-2%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%421W / 330L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$285
sports 1% +$10
other 1% −$22
politics 0% +$17
world 0% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +1.8% -7.9% 53% 47% +2.1%
≤30d 70 -16.9% -24.9% 44% 37% -16.2%
≤90d 390 -9.4% -18.0% 57% 36% -16.9%
all 751 -6.9% -15.7% 56% 39% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 39% -13.6%
10% -23.8% 34% -21.9%
15% -31.2% 28% -29.5%
20% -37.9% 25% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses421 / 330
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)751 / 751
History coverage125d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 751 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $42 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $9 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -57%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $43 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $18 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2610 history records