trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 16¢ | $2,725 | $26,247 | +$23,521 (+863%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 17¢ | $11,812 | $18,014 | +$6,203 (+53%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 9¢ | $2,677 | $13,732 | +$11,055 (+413%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 9¢ | $1,771 | $9,406 | +$7,634 (+431%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 11¢ | $1,144 | $7,585 | +$6,441 (+563%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 5¢ | $1,365 | $4,218 | +$2,853 (+209%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $2,167 | $2,665 | +$499 (+23%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $5,285 | $2,108 | −$3,177 (-60%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1,365 | $2,007 | +$642 (+47%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $2,677 | $1,847 | −$830 (-31%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1,365 | $1,269 | −$95 (-7%) |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $1,434 | $1,161 | −$272 (-19%) |
| Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $23,086 | $693 | −$22,393 (-97%) |
| Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $23,086 | $693 | −$22,393 (-97%) |
| Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $23,086 | $693 | −$22,393 (-97%) |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $1,771 | $691 | −$1,080 (-61%) |
| Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $21,212 | $636 | −$20,576 (-97%) |
| Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $21,212 | $636 | −$20,576 (-97%) |
| Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $60,798 | $636 | −$60,162 (-99%) |
| Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $21,212 | $636 | −$20,576 (-97%) |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $46,547 | $636 | −$45,910 (-99%) |
| Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $20,853 | $626 | −$20,227 (-97%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $20,379 | $611 | −$19,767 (-97%) |
| Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $20,379 | $611 | −$19,767 (-97%) |
| Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $19,546 | $586 | −$18,959 (-97%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $23,086 | −$23,086 | -100% |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $23,086 | −$23,086 | -100% |
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $39,413 | −$38,641 | -98% |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $18,973 | −$15,390 | -81% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -94.8% | -95.3% | 0% | 0% | -96.2% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -94.8% | -95.3% | 0% | 0% | -96.2% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -94.8% | -95.3% | 0% | 0% | -96.2% |
| all | 4 | -94.8% | -95.3% | 0% | 0% | -96.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -95.3% | 0% | -96.2% |
| 10% | -95.7% | 0% | -96.6% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -96.1% | 0% | -96.9% |
| 20% | -96.5% | 0% | -97.2% |