Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
09 0x0907…badd other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$308 (+38%) realized +$308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$158
14 days+$499
30 days+$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$258
other 41% +$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+65.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +41.0% +27.5% 50% 50% +20.2%
≤30d 9 +82.8% +65.4% 67% 67% +43.1%
≤90d 9 +82.8% +65.4% 67% 67% +43.1%
all 9 +82.8% +65.4% 67% 67% +43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.4% 67% +43.1%
10% +49.6% 67% +29.4%
15% +35.1% 44% +16.9%
20% +21.9% 44% +5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$31 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.1 per $1 lost it wins $6.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage15d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 29 $51 +$115 +226%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $307 +$104 +34%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $102 −$53 -52%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$9 -44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $32 +$10 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $142 +$104 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$91 +442%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan to score first vs. Brazil? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 0¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $49 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $102 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 56¢ $409 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 9h
Japan to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $204 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $32 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 12d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 12d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 12d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records