Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:36:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0909…91ca crypto 1359 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$6,733 (-32%) realized −$6,718 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate73%1324W / 501L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day130.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$378
sports 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 987 -41.5% -47.1% 51% 1% -74.7%
≤30d 1825 -22.4% -29.8% 73% 2% -66.2%
≤90d 1825 -22.4% -29.8% 73% 2% -66.2%
all 1825 -22.4% -29.8% 73% 2% -66.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 2% -66.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.5% 1% -69.4%
15% -42.6% 1% -72.4%
20% -48.3% 0% -75.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$71 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,718
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1324 / 501
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1825 / 1359
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day130.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-09-21? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 2PM ET Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 6? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-10-19? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-04? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 4AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-29? Jun 15 $50 −$52 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 12PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$13 -175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$20 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 6PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $110 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $102 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.09 (match) · 3500 history records