Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0915…5882 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-5%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$368
7 days+$368
14 days+$368
30 days+$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$18
other 30% +$368
sports 10% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +176.3% +150.0% 100% 100% +101.7%
≤30d 3 +176.3% +150.0% 100% 100% +101.7%
≤90d 3 +176.3% +150.0% 100% 100% +101.7%
all 54 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 39% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 39% +18.9%
10% -28.2% 30% +7.5%
15% -35.1% 26% -2.9%
20% -41.5% 19% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +123% too few recent
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage103d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$203 +395%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$71 +70%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $146 +$94 +64%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $30 +$27 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6AM ET Mar 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3AM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6AM ET Mar 16 $31 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11PM ET Mar 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12AM ET Mar 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9PM ET Mar 16 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10PM ET Mar 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1AM ET Mar 16 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6AM ET Mar 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8PM ET Mar 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10PM ET Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1AM ET Mar 16 $32 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2AM ET Mar 16 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1AM ET Mar 16 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2AM ET Mar 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2AM ET Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12AM ET Mar 16 $56 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7PM ET Mar 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3AM ET Mar 16 $19 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11PM ET Mar 16 $42 −$19 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 16 $2 +$8 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12AM ET Mar 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 9PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8PM ET Mar 15 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12AM ET Mar 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10PM ET Mar 14 $50 +$29 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11AM ET Mar 13 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10AM ET Mar 13 $9 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 8AM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 7AM ET Mar 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5AM ET Mar 13 $28 +$4 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $254 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 51¢ $173 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $241 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $146 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2h
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 37¢ $26 93d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 8¢ $3 93d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 8¢ $5 93d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 32¢ $30 93d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 46¢ $57 93d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 24¢ $30 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $10 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 98d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 1¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $57 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records