Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x0916…32ef sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$763 (+17%) realized +$870 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$514
other 33% +$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.9% -13.1% 62% 62% +8.1%
≤30d 13 -3.9% -13.1% 62% 62% +8.1%
≤90d 13 -3.9% -13.1% 62% 62% +8.1%
all 13 -3.9% -13.1% 62% 62% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 62% +8.1%
10% -21.4% 54% -2.3%
15% -29.0% 31% -11.7%
20% -36.0% 31% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$92 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$870
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 28¢ $250 $143 −$107 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,597 +$295 +18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $404 +$211 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $77 +$56 +73%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $554 +$189 +34%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$148 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $254 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1,597 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $202 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $404 7h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $77 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $554 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,007 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $98 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 40h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $4 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $11 2d
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.23 · official $143.23 (match) · 22 history records