Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
09 0x0919…2074 sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$377 (+17%) realized +$390 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$254
other 9% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +23.3% +11.6% 70% 65% +6.9%
≤30d 23 +23.3% +11.6% 70% 65% +6.9%
≤90d 23 +23.3% +11.6% 70% 65% +6.9%
all 23 +23.3% +11.6% 70% 65% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.6% 65% +6.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.9% 61% -3.3%
15% -8.8% 43% -12.6%
20% -17.8% 35% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$58 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$390
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 30¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $220 −$24 -11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $151 +$28 +19%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $99 +$52 +52%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $58 −$58 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $101 +$57 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $66 +$207 +311%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $39 +$31 +79%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $59 −$22 -38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$23 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivo Jun 20 $61 −$35 -57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $100 −$99 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $198 +$10 +5%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $100 +$86 +85%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $101 −$99 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $81 +$27 +34%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $57 +$62 +109%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $101 +$35 +35%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $40 +$11 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $56 +$35 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $100 +$56 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $69 −$68 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $130 +$38 +30%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $96 +$34 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $102 2m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $140 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 34¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $80 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 90¢ $179 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 75¢ $151 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $151 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $99 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $58 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $158 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $101 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 100¢ $273 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $71 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $36 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $39 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $59 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivo SELL 26¢ $26 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $100 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivo BUY 60¢ $61 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $110 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $97 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 73¢ $98 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $186 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $100 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.14 · official $85.71 · 53 history records