Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

09 0x0920…d23a other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,859 (-27%) realized −$1,194 · open −$665

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip

Net edge-63%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%2W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$359per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$686now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$1,227

14 days−$1,227

30 days−$810

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-62.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-84.7%	-86.2%	0%	0%	-45.5%
≤30d	12	-51.7%	-56.3%	17%	17%	-26.5%
≤90d	12	-51.7%	-56.3%	17%	17%	-26.5%
all	14	-58.6%	-62.6%	14%	14%	-41.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-62.6%	14%	-41.2%
10%	-66.1%	14%	-46.8%
15%	-69.4%	14%	-51.9%
20%	-72.4%	14%	-56.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -59% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -74% → late -44% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$444 vs −$232 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.32 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage

Net worth$686

Realized−$1,194

Unrealized−$665

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses2 / 12

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions5

Markets (closed)14 / 19

History coverage145d

Avg bet$359

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$700	$660	−$40 (-6%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-17%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$11	$6	−$6 (-50%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$460	$3	−$457 (-99%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$160	$1	−$159 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$308	−$300	-98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$57	−$55	-97%
Senegal to score first vs. France?	Jun 16	$306	−$300	-98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$103	−$100	-97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt?	Jun 15	$308	−$300	-98%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Jun 15	$2,029	−$171	-8%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	May 23	$200	+$406	+203%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour an	May 23	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute	May 23	$250	−$250	-100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours	May 23	$46	−$46	-100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute	May 23	$135	−$135	-100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute	May 23	$570	+$483	+85%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	Jan 25	$581	−$581	-100%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 25	$500	−$500	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$164	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$221	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$252	1h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$11	2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$720	2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	13¢	$205	2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	11¢	$57	2d
Senegal to score first vs. France?	BUY Yes	28¢	$153	2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	2d
Senegal to score first vs. France?	BUY Yes	28¢	$153	2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt?	BUY Yes	14¢	$308	3d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	SELL No	50¢	$1,857	3d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	BUY No	52¢	$2,029	26d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute	BUY Yes	59¢	$150	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute	BUY Yes	15¢	$111	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute	BUY Yes	62¢	$220	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute	BUY Yes	24¢	$24	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute	BUY Yes	27¢	$100	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute	BUY Yes	27¢	$100	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours	BUY Yes	6¢	$46	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute	BUY Yes	45¢	$200	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute	BUY Yes	22¢	$50	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour an	BUY Yes	2¢	$40	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	BUY No	4¢	$81	144d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	26¢	$500	144d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUY Gaethje	33¢	$200	144d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	BUY No	4¢	$500	144d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $686.06 · official $686.59 (match) · 37 history records