Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0920…f999 world 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$9
other 21% −$1
politics 14% −$1
sports 13% +$1
economics 4% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.2% -7.5% 45% 9% -7.9%
≤30d 25 +0.9% -8.7% 52% 4% -8.8%
≤90d 67 -1.1% -10.5% 39% 1% -9.0%
all 75 -2.0% -11.3% 41% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.8% 1% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 44
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage525d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $71 +$5 +7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $47 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $71 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $22 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 -7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $82 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $214 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $51 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $16 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $222 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $46 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $68 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $86 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $118 +$7 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $68 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $3 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $46 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $3 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $46 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $15 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $43 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $7 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $6 29h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $53 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $53 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $54 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $50 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $50 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $50 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $11 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $11 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $14 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $48 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 325 history records