Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x0923…2a89
other · 70 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$69
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses31 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage470d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $56 $69 +$13 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $154 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $139 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $411 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $72 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $255 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $139 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $141 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $139 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $153 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $13 $0 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $1,159 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $98 −$5 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 $0 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $149 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $141 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $145 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $141 +$5 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $224 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $154 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $149 −$12 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $4 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1,053 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $1,156 +$2 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $36 −$4 -12%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 02 $15 $0 +3%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on July 4? Jul 03 $1 $0 -24%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 01 $16 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 29 $6 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 28 $4 $0 +4%
Will United States win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 27 $4 −$1 -33%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 25 $3 +$3 +98%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% −$1
other 25% +$4
finance 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $56 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $16 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $1 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $10 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $21 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $2 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $10 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $27 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $35 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $120 35h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 41h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 43h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $154 46h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $154 46h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $139 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $139 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $109 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $24 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $133 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $102 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $102 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $139 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $139 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $139 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 -0.8% -10.2% 35% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 69 -0.9% -10.3% 45% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.51 · official $68.51 (match) · 219 history records