Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x0928…a707 crypto 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$255 (+1%) realized +$254 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%78W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$81
14 days+$140
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$242
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 30 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 67 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 0% -8.7%
all 79 +0.4% -9.1% 99% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,011) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×3217.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×250935.56 per $1 lost it wins $250935.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$254
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses78 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage104d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 99¢ 99¢ $133 $134 +$1 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,202 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,381 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $181 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $993 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,167 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $645 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,148 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,136 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,127 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $379 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $740 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,107 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,099 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,093 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,077 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,071 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,049 +$24 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,038 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,034 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,031 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,020 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,011 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $997 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $133 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1,217 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $1,202 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $1,202 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $110 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $447 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $141 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $131 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $128 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $229 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $1,188 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $1,195 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $188 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,006 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $46 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $946 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $181 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,174 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $356 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $811 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $645 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $1,148 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1,136 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $75 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $368 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $297 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $348 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $31 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $629 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.03 · official $139.03 (match) · 194 history records