Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x092c…5bb2 sports 12 markets active 17h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8,174 (+53%) realized +$8,174 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$1,287per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$221est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,375
7 days+$8,439
14 days+$8,439
30 days+$7,999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$8,609
other 4% −$610
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.3% -19.8% 45% 45% +41.6%
≤30d 12 -18.7% -26.4% 42% 42% +37.5%
≤90d 12 -18.7% -26.4% 42% 42% +37.5%
all 12 -18.7% -26.4% 42% 42% +37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 42% +37.5%
10% -33.5% 42% +24.4%
15% -39.9% 42% +12.3%
20% -45.8% 42% +1.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +52% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,270 vs −$479 · ×4.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,174
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1,287
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) Jun 20 $3,046 +$3,100 +102%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $3,246 +$2,872 +88%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,717 +$2,403 +88%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $1,978 −$1,950 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $461 −$450 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $1,521 +$1,264 +83%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,504 +$1,710 +114%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 28 $449 −$440 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 49¢ $3,046 16h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 52¢ $3,246 20h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $5,119 21h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $2,717 40h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $152 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $1,826 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $461 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 54¢ $1,521 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $82 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $82 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $3,214 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $1,504 3d
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Atlanta Dream 26¢ $10 23d
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Atlanta Dream 30¢ $388 23d
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Atlanta Dream 41¢ $51 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records