Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x092f…d9fd sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$444 (+13%) realized +$444 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$523
other 21% +$644
crypto 4% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -10.1% -18.7% 56% 53% -4.0%
≤30d 43 -10.1% -18.7% 56% 53% -4.0%
≤90d 43 -10.1% -18.7% 56% 53% -4.0%
all 43 -10.1% -18.7% 56% 53% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 53% -4.0%
10% -26.5% 49% -13.2%
15% -33.6% 23% -21.6%
20% -40.1% 21% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$60 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage3d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $29 −$27 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $199 +$138 +69%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $29 −$28 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $129 −$128 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $38 +$10 +27%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $39 +$73 +188%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $130 +$87 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $37 +$4 +10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$83 +291%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $89 +$26 +29%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $129 −$129 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $168 +$154 +91%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $339 +$115 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $89 +$58 +65%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $48 +$17 +36%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $117 +$36 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $115 +$74 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $272 +$291 +107%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $48 +$13 +28%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $68 +$16 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $48 +$14 +29%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $68 +$11 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $68 +$13 +18%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $69 +$23 +34%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $38 +$41 +107%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $89 +$26 +29%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $58 +$19 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $39 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $29 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $129 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 1¢ $2 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $336 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 17¢ $29 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $69 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $38 8h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 74¢ $38 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $39 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $130 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $38 22h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 21¢ $18 23h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 21¢ $41 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $69 24h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 9¢ $18 24h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $89 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 24h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 24h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $28 25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $49 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $69 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $120 27h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $270 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $129 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $89 29h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $48 30h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 73¢ $48 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $115 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records