Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x092f…2ff1 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$868 (-6%) realized −$750 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$546per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$3,042now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$1,716
sports 15% +$1,388
world 9% −$611
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-78.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -76.5% -78.8% 10% 10% -13.2%
≤30d 20 -76.5% -78.8% 10% 10% -13.2%
≤90d 20 -76.5% -78.8% 10% 10% -13.2%
all 20 -76.5% -78.8% 10% 10% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.8% 10% -13.2%
10% -80.8% 10% -21.5%
15% -82.7% 10% -29.1%
20% -84.4% 10% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,475 vs −$210 · ×7.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$3,042
Realized−$750
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 18
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions6
Markets (closed)20 / 26
History coverage17d
Avg bet$546
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,000 $1,071 +$71 (+7%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $818 $777 −$41 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $500 $488 −$12 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $643 $467 −$176 (-27%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 98¢ $100 $240 +$140 (+140%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $142 −$138 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $148 −$145 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$73 -71%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $162 −$159 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$76 -74%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$91 -89%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $645 −$583 -90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,216 −$611 -50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,423 +$1,589 +112%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,020 −$1,399 -69%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,523 +$1,361 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $840 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,029 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $36 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $47 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $101 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $105 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $142 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $142 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $107 27h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 25¢ $148 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $116 28h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 14¢ $26 28h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $109 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $101 28h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 2¢ $27 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $100 29h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $107 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,042.43 · official $3,046.09 (match) · 73 history records