Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
09 0x0930…a0aa crypto 1215 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,882 (-15%) realized −$1,882 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%741W / 478L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -7.7% -16.5% 70% 67% -8.4%
≤30d 535 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 61% -6.8%
≤90d 1219 -8.3% -17.0% 61% 38% -8.5%
all 1219 -8.3% -17.0% 61% 38% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 38% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 28% -17.2%
15% -32.2% 14% -25.2%
20% -38.9% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,882
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses741 / 478
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1219 / 1215
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1219 Trades
no open positions (128 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -513%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$9 -11417%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -566%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -838%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records