Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
09 0x0931…e78e other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 760d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,847 (-9%) realized −$3,756 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,047per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$895
7 days−$392
14 days−$392
30 days−$392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$3,846
world 11% −$708
other 6% +$1,722
sports 3% −$321
culture 1% −$399
economics 1% −$299
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +40.6% +27.2% 60% 60% -15.5%
≤30d 15 +40.6% +27.2% 60% 60% -15.5%
≤90d 20 +34.9% +22.1% 55% 55% -14.6%
all 41 +6.7% -3.5% 46% 44% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 44% -17.6%
10% -12.7% 41% -25.5%
15% -21.1% 39% -32.7%
20% -28.9% 37% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$344 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

760d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized−$3,756
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage760d
Avg bet$1,047
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 42¢ $473 $427 −$46 (-10%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 46¢ $150 $105 −$45 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $668 +$413 +62%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $141 +$80 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $366 +$511 +139%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $58 +$225 +385%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $109 +$129 +118%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $308 +$173 +56%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 +$102 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $402 −$296 -74%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 16 $3,358 −$1,693 -50%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $105 −$31 -30%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $50 +$107 +215%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $177 −$27 -15%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $150 +$29 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 15 $200 +$67 +34%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 09 $148 +$252 +170%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Mar 09 $400 +$509 +127%
Big Game: Coin Toss Feb 18 $50 +$50 +100%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds? Feb 18 $90 +$68 +75%
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 08 $90 −$90 -100%
Will "DtMF" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Feb 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $207 +$308 +149%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $150 −$35 -23%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jan 14 $500 +$243 +49%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Fed end QT before May? Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 01 $8,964 −$3,404 -38%
Bitcoin new all time high in 2024? Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $14,731 +$224 +2%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 07 $11,337 −$668 -6%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? Aug 23 $199 −$199 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $152 41m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $481 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,081 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $668 8h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $141 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $877 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $326 2d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $283 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $238 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 2d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $58 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $481 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $308 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $204 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $105 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $47 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $102 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $46 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $253 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.73 · official $542.01 · 152 history records