Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
09 0x0931…c1b1 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$21 (+3%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$191
sports 29% −$183
politics 3% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +52.2% +37.7% 67% 67% -8.5%
≤30d 9 +52.2% +37.7% 67% 67% -8.5%
≤90d 9 +52.2% +37.7% 67% 67% -8.5%
all 10 +54.8% +40.1% 70% 70% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.1% 70% -6.7%
10% +26.7% 70% -15.6%
15% +14.4% 70% -23.8%
20% +3.2% 60% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$94 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage591d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +269%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $249 +$129 +52%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 +$65 +212%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$183 -90%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 +$30 +117%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$8 +48%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 14 $18 +$14 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 65¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $378 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $96 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 98¢ $96 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 6¢ $19 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $203 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 34¢ $55 40h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 56¢ $18 591d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records