Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0932…46c9 other 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%20W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$6
other 25% −$5
politics 22% −$3
crypto 9% −$1
economics 8% −$1
culture 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 198 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses20 / 178
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage165d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 18 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $26 $0 -1%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $62 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $55 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $62 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $71 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 17 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 16 $126 −$1 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $32 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $105 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $34 $0 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 11 $125 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 10 $36 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 09 $69 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 08 $37 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $152 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $34 11d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $34 11d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $21 19d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $21 19d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $31 27d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $31 27d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 90¢ $24 39d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 42d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $30 96d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $30 96d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $26 96d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $26 97d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 98¢ $36 97d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $36 97d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $36 97d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $37 97d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $34 97d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $34 97d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $36 97d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 98d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $23 98d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $23 98d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $26 98d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $26 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $36 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $36 98d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $27 98d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $18 99d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $9 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.89 · official $32.89 (match) · 857 history records