Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0934…f376 other 318 markets active 1d ago coverage 212d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 212d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,507 (+6%) realized +$1,278 · open +$229
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate66%185W / 97L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$3,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days−$312
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$717
other 37% +$894
politics 9% +$136
culture 4% +$90
finance 3% −$90
weather 2% +$39
tech 0% −$63
sports 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.0% +11.3% 75% 75% +23.5%
≤30d 60 +10.9% +0.3% 68% 45% -16.6%
≤90d 127 +25.5% +13.6% 65% 44% -6.3%
all 282 +20.9% +9.4% 66% 41% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 41% -2.4%
10% -1.1% 25% -11.7%
15% -10.6% 21% -20.3%
20% -19.4% 16% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$3,630
Realized+$1,278
Unrealized+$229
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses185 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions36
Markets (closed)282 / 318
History coverage212d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $724 $740 +$16 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $554 $628 +$74 (+13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $465 $508 +$43 (+9%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? No 89¢ 92¢ $386 $404 +$17 (+4%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $348 $393 +$45 (+13%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $329 $351 +$22 (+7%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 92¢ 95¢ $138 $143 +$5 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $86 $96 +$10 (+12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 99¢ $43 $54 +$11 (+27%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 86¢ $37 $44 +$6 (+17%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 64¢ 94¢ $23 $33 +$11 (+47%)
Will Adele perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 95¢ 97¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? No 84¢ 90¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $24 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No 63¢ 34¢ $29 $15 −$13 (-46%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+23%)
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 66¢ 48¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No 46¢ 70¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+53%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No 72¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $4 +$6 +156%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $137 +$5 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $116 −$25 -22%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $44 +$13 +30%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $26 +$20 +76%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $137 +$25 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $190 −$16 -8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $237 −$167 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $676 −$182 -27%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $22 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $183 +$5 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$9 +3%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +82%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $86 −$1 -1%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $34 −$7 -21%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +149%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $38 +$10 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $189 +$11 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $235 +$11 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $91 −$40 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 08 $1 +$4 +307%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 08 $3 +$2 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4? Jun 08 $3 +$7 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 4? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +8%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 08 $33 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3? Jun 08 $31 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 5? Jun 08 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 08 $539 +$33 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 5? Jun 07 $2 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 5? Jun 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +199%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $33 −$17 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 86¢ $9 30h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $8 30h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 30h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 30h
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $88 6d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? BUY No 89¢ $3 6d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? BUY No 89¢ $42 6d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? BUY No 89¢ $10 6d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? SELL No 90¢ $45 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 8d
Will Adele perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 95¢ $10 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 2¢ $9 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 3¢ $6 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 6¢ $12 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 4¢ $7 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 4¢ $2 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 8¢ $8 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 5¢ $4 9d
Will Adele perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 95¢ $19 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 8¢ $4 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 11¢ $7 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 12¢ $6 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 16¢ $1 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 28¢ $14 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 30¢ $14 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 30¢ $2 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 34¢ $17 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,629.88 · official $3,629.88 (match) · 3500 history records