Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x0935…d9ef sports 328 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,491 (+4%) realized +$3,489 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate85%278W / 49L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$297est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$566
14 days−$639
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,281
other 0% +$28
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -1.0% -10.5% 83% 40% -12.0%
≤30d 132 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 38% -10.2%
≤90d 327 +1.7% -8.0% 85% 40% -6.2%
all 327 +1.7% -8.0% 85% 40% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 40% -6.2%
10% -16.8% 20% -15.2%
15% -24.8% 11% -23.4%
20% -32.2% 6% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$133 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$3,489
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses278 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$297
Open positions1
Markets (closed)327 / 328
History coverage87d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 62¢ 70¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $12 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $84 −$54 -65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $335 −$231 -69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $260 +$28 +11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $310 −$59 -19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $130 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $115 +$15 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $98 +$22 +23%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $81 +$18 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $291 −$213 -73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $282 +$8 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $277 +$9 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $262 +$8 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $234 +$26 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $197 +$40 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$9 -74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $457 −$296 -65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $298 +$9 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $225 +$72 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $163 +$57 +35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $974 −$805 -83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $893 +$76 +9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $830 +$69 +8%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $496 +$328 +66%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $377 +$87 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $366 +$43 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $312 +$57 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $212 +$101 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $198 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,089 −$888 -82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $982 +$106 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $902 +$77 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $819 +$80 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $799 +$24 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $720 +$79 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $706 +$13 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $689 +$20 +3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $647 +$40 +6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $624 +$25 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $600 +$24 +4%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $532 +$66 +12%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $509 +$21 +4%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $469 +$41 +9%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $458 +$13 +3%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $296 +$158 +54%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $287 +$12 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $262 +$26 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 62¢ $15 31m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $14 41m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $1 41m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 86¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 94¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner SELL HyperSpirit 99¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner SELL HyperSpirit 80¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner SELL HyperSpirit 80¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 72¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 5¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 75¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 75¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 75¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 39¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 80¢ $58 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $58 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $49 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 15¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 92¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 92¢ $92 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 92¢ $166 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $288 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 95¢ $181 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 95¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 78¢ $79 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $79 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 70¢ $56 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 32¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.03 · official $17.03 (match) · 1068 history records