Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
09 0x0936…fb00 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-21%) realized −$122 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$29
other 45% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -16.4% -24.3% 67% 33% -4.4%
≤30d 3 -16.4% -24.3% 67% 33% -4.4%
≤90d 3 -16.4% -24.3% 67% 33% -4.4%
all 3 -16.4% -24.3% 67% 33% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 33% -4.4%
10% -31.6% 33% -13.6%
15% -38.2% 33% -21.9%
20% -44.2% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$55 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage6d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-2.5) Ghana 62¢ 94¢ $51 $77 +$26 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $206 +$19 +10%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $142 +$59 +41%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 62¢ $26 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 62¢ $26 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 100¢ $225 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 91¢ $206 4h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $142 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.41 · official $76.58 (match) · 7 history records