Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:14:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0936…051a politics 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$15
other 26% −$4
world 10% −$2
sports 10% −$3
culture 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 39 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 39 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$943) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage82d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,253 $0 -0%
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,086 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $993 −$2 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce Mike Lee as the next United States Attorney May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $943 −$2 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 20 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 19 $898 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $28 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $28 2h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 21h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 21h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 21h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $982 22h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 22h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,100 22h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 22h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 22h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,086 22h
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $805 22h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 23h
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $226 23h
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,032 23h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $33 38h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $11 38h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $14 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $8 39h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 39h
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $702 39h
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $286 39h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 40h
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $989 40h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $1,083 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records