Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x093c…758b other 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-11%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$37
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$54
sports 30% +$51
crypto 21% −$15
culture 12% −$23
weather 3% −$9
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -27.2% -34.1% 30% 22% -26.7%
≤30d 75 -29.5% -36.2% 27% 19% -20.5%
≤90d 75 -29.5% -36.2% 27% 19% -20.5%
all 75 -29.5% -36.2% 27% 19% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 19% -20.5%
10% -42.3% 9% -28.1%
15% -47.9% 9% -35.1%
20% -53.0% 8% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$9 +126%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19 +$35 +183%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$5 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$9 -80%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -84%
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -74%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-21.5) Jun 11 $26 −$20 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -14%
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 08 $2 −$1 -71%
Spread: Knicks (-22.5) Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +20%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -83%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 38h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 39h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 41h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $4 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 43h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $15 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 194 history records