Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x093e…e671 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.6% -21.0% 70% 10% -14.1%
≤30d 10 -12.6% -21.0% 70% 10% -14.1%
≤90d 10 -12.6% -21.0% 70% 10% -14.1%
all 10 -12.6% -21.0% 70% 10% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 10% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 10% -22.3%
15% -35.4% 10% -29.8%
20% -41.8% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records