Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0942…9e6f sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 94L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$5
other 16% −$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 2% +$34
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 98 -1.1% -10.5% 4% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -9.1%
10% -19.1% 4% -17.8%
15% -26.9% 4% -25.7%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$1 · ×36.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage545d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 11 $7 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 9PM ET Feb 23 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10AM ET Feb 23 $10 +$10 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 2PM ET Feb 20 $8 +$8 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 12AM ET Feb 19 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 2AM ET Feb 17 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 12PM ET Feb 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 6PM ET Feb 06 $58 +$58 +100%
Will Taro Kono be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will Steve Sweeney win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Jul 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Jul 18 $8 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump jail Kamala Harris? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $4 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? May 24 $4 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mircea Geoană win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Unitary Democratic Coalition (PCP+PEV) win the most seats in Apr 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Mar 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $103 $0 -0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 19 $130 $0 -0%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Dec 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election? Dec 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $42 $0 -0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $118 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 19 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 30d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 64d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 64d
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 9PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 112d
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 114d
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 115d
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 115d
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 117d
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 119d
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 121d
XRP Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 122d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 6PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $58 129d
Will Taro Kono be the next Prime Minister of Japan? SELL No 100¢ $9 248d
Will Taro Kono be the next Prime Minister of Japan? BUY No 100¢ $9 248d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $9 255d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $9 255d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $4 262d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $4 262d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 281d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 281d
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $9 289d
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $9 289d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $4 313d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $4 313d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records