Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:08:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0942…04ce other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%24W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$107
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$49
crypto 3% −$6
world 0% −$3
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -28.6% -35.4% 24% 22% -13.8%
≤30d 74 -18.3% -26.1% 32% 31% -11.6%
≤90d 74 -18.3% -26.1% 32% 31% -11.6%
all 74 -18.3% -26.1% 32% 31% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 31% -11.6%
10% -33.2% 22% -20.1%
15% -39.6% 19% -27.8%
20% -45.6% 15% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage14d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$10 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 +$19 +19%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$24 -24%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $203 −$66 -33%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 +$19 +19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $71 +$36 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $304 +$26 +8%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$21 -68%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $203 +$22 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$4 -4%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $117 +$67 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $3 +$22 +704%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$78 -77%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $102 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$33 +11%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 +$10 +504%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$8 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$59 +58%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 +$18 +590%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -73%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $61 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $31 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 30h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 55¢ $78 30h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 31h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 31h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 58¢ $137 32h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $102 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $102 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $102 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.57 · official $142.57 (match) · 126 history records