trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Yes | 28¢ | 28¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | Up | 40¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-05? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? | Down | 36¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 8? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | May 05 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | May 05 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? | Oct 28 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Oct 28 | $1 | +$3 | +285% |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? | Oct 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Oct 08 | $1 | $0 | +19% |
| Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 8? | Oct 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Oct 06 | $2 | $0 | -7% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Oct 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-05? | Oct 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-05? | Oct 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5? | Oct 05 | $1 | +$14 | +1414% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? | Oct 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -8.1% | -16.9% | 0% | 0% | -16.9% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -8.1% | -16.9% | 0% | 0% | -16.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -47.8% | -52.8% | 25% | 25% | -52.7% |
| all | 15 | +61.1% | +45.8% | 27% | 27% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +45.8% | 27% | -9.1% |
| 10% | +31.8% | 13% | -17.8% |
| 15% | +19.1% | 13% | -25.8% |
| 20% | +7.4% | 13% | -33.1% |