Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0943…1d8d crypto 669 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,187 (-10%) realized −$1,022 · open −$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%218W / 430L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$17
14 days+$239
30 days−$2,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$377
sports 27% −$227
other 15% −$371
politics 3% −$164
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +9.6% -0.8% 38% 38% -8.0%
≤30d 243 -51.6% -56.2% 16% 16% -53.5%
≤90d 443 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 29% -24.4%
all 648 -15.5% -23.6% 34% 33% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 33% -17.0%
10% -30.9% 32% -24.9%
15% -37.6% 29% -32.2%
20% -43.7% 26% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$1,022
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses218 / 430
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions14
Markets (closed)648 / 669
History coverage184d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 648 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $58 $18 −$40 (-69%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $110 $1 −$109 (-99%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$53 +344%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS (BO3) - United21 Group C Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $71 +$107 +150%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $71 +$23 +33%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $31 +$43 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $179 −$179 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$45 +874%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$63 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$11 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$18 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$36 +177%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$21 +414%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +473%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $73 −$43 -58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS (BO3) - United21 Group C BUY CHAOS 15¢ $10 10h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 57¢ $10 10h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 1¢ $5 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND France leading at halftime? AND Will BUY 15¢ $15 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 20¢ $15 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 32¢ $15 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $71 30h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage BUY Hero JiuJing 67¢ $40 38h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 28¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 81¢ $94 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 23¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $179 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both BUY 18¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $99 5d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 44¢ $59 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.01 · official $69.01 · 1494 history records